True odds True Results

With the football season fast approaching (did it ever end?) I thought it might be interesting to post up some details on the results of the Racing and Football Outlooks True Odds service.

For those unfamiliar- they work out the “true odds” (strangely enough given the title) of various football matches with the idea being that if you can then get better odds then that then this is the path to success. As (hopefully) everyone involved in betting knows then this beating of the “true odds” is the only way anyone is really going to succeed in the betting game.

There are two issues here  1) The ability to get that call right on what the true odds of success are,  and 2) If you are constantly taking that value then a lot of the AGC’s/Casinos/sorry meant to write bookmakers will just close or limit your account  .

Im always extremely skeptical of anyone publishing tips without following it up without any sort of  results analysis (and even some that do – like my beloved Hugh Taylor at ATR do so in way that is fundamentally flawed). The RFO is guilty of this and anyone who has read the true odds column regularly will be familiar with phrases  such as “tough week for the column” ” only a slight setback” etc etc.

So lets cut to  the chase here are some numbers.

 

(Firstly apologies for how crap that looks but my pea brain cant work out how to insert it without taking a photo on my phone)

Between 17th May 2015 and 15th May 2017 I placed 439 bets based on the advice and wait for it……… lost 5 points.

That’s not going to force me to sell my home and I get the paper anyway for the excellent Jeremy Chapman golf tips. The bets themselves dont take that much time to place using oddschecker to seek out the better prices but its still time that I could have spent elsewhere ( doing more blog pieces perhaps?)

One small upside is that it may have helped some of my betting accounts stay alive longer due to the bets fitting the profile of a “mug punter” .

I’ve constantly harped on here about the importance of keeping records and all of my activity on every service I follow are recorded on excellent spreadsheets found here http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/

Suffice to say I’m not following them anymore- I aim to post some regular updates on results here on all the services I use and hope that may prove useful to anyone thinking of following them.

Lastly I was at Lingfield Races on a social occasion recently  and obviously couldn’t resist talking to some of the on course bookies. Bottom line is I think they are in a “race to the bottom” and doomed. With one or two notable exceptions they were miserable and non communicative. One openly said he knew nothing about horses and just followed the on screen prices ( they all use Betdaq), no one was “taking anything on” and therefore all the prices were identical. With the ever increasing availability of 4g and smart phones anyone with any sense is going to use an exchange to get a considerably better price  ( especially if the person taking the bet acts like they are doing you a huge favour). They were just relying on social mug punters to fill their satchels but surely thats not a viable long term business model ( “can I have a £1 each way on that” says the drunk hen next to me).

Was unimpressed by Lingfield generally  ( in fairness it was raining so it didn’t help)- Admission price was a bit steep and £8 for a hot dog and chips was just OTT.   Some things are worth trying again but I wont be rushing back there.