True Odds pt 2

Always nice when someone takes the time to comment on a blog piece so thanks to “Billy Bunter” for the following:

I have always wondered at the accuracy of the RFO True Odds. I do not trust the journalists to use the RFO True Odds prices to select the right bets so was never convinced by the column tips. I would be interested if anyone had used the listed True Prices to place their own bets based on certain criteria like a minimum difference of 3% or something similar.

Maybe they have success using different minimum differences or only betting in certain leagues etc. Maybe they constantly over or underestimate favourites and the like. Sadly the RFO will never send out an Excel with all historic True Odds for us to do the analysis with. I imagine they use something like a basic Elo model which is unlikely to have much long term joy on the top leagues. Anyway look forward to more of your musings and hope you continue to enjoy the great JC’s golf tips.

Always enjoy the ravings on Twitter about how useless he is for backing so many short prices. The man knows how to abuse the each way terms better than anyone.”

The last point about Jeremy Chapman is an interesting one as it wasn’t until fairly recently that I was aware that JC came in for any criticism for his selections. I’ve got a decent set of records going back a couple of years that I will share at a future date  when I get time  however its fair to say that, in the long term you wont lose money following his selections ( Cue a huuuuge losing run!).

Unsurprisingly both  @brucemillington and @rfoutlook didn’t have the time or inclination to respond when I asked them to comment on the blog piece (something to hide lads?).

One person who is never short of opinions is @geoffbanksbet and fair play he took the time to respond to the piece regarding my on site bookies experience at Lingfield recently.

” Bookmakers odds too uniform to create interest for those looking for a market experience

But bookies views older than T Rex”

Well said Geoff!