Thoroughly Examined

I’m not a big one for talking about which tipster services I use for a couple of reasons. The first one is that if does look like you have a personal interest in the promotion of the service (more of that another time) and secondly the bookmakers are a bit sneaky sometimes and could limit your account if you talk openly about using services which are on their hit list for having the temerity to actually provide winners!

I’m going to break cover on the Market Examiner as I’ve found the service to be excellent, not only in terms of a strike rate and return but more importantly because of the information that you get at the end of the day about how the horses have done therefore giving you an understanding of what has happened.

Here is their summary of Mays results which as you can see is quite impressive.

Hope you’re having a good day. Before we crack on with the analysis, just to say we’ll mark up Bellechance this morning as a 6/1 shot, although hopefully most of you managed to get the 7/1 with Stan James. 6/1 was available for a long while with a few firms including Coral. Bet365 odds crashed in a most unusual way as the email was being delivered. An interesting runner.

Anyway, high time we looked back at our performance for May, which ended in terrific style to give us our best month of the year so far.
It was an excellent month all round really, as we had a high number of placed efforts (many at big prices), beat the SP on many occasions, and of course built a very strong profit level.
So let’s take a look at the figures.
Bets: 85
Wins: 14 (16.47%)
2nds: 12 (14.12%)
3rds: 13 (15.29%)
Placed total: 39 (45.88%)
Average odds taken: 7.95/1
Average SP: 6.73/1
Average win odds: 8.07/1
Profit/Loss: +74pts
Return On Investment: +77.08%
Fantastic figures really, even if we say so ourselves! We had numerous big priced seconds, including at 16/1, 10/1 9/1 and 8/1 so things could have been even better.
As we always say, the key figure is whether we’re beating SP, and to do so by more than 1.2pts on average per selection makes us very happy.
June wasn’t quite as good but still no need for a load of bs.

For now let’s look back at the month of June. It was a fairly frustrating month all told, every time we seemed to be picking up a slight head of steam things were pegged back. In the first part of the month we had many second placed finishes, and ended with 14 in all from our 75 picks (nearly one in five). Still, despite the difficulties we still managed a profit, the fifth month in a row which we’ve achieved that.

So let’s take a look at the figures.

Bets: 75

Wins: 10 (13.33%)

2nds: 14 (18.66%)

3rds: 5 (6.66%)

Placed total: 29 (38.67%)

Average odds taken: 7.95/1 (exactly the same as last month!)

Average SP: 6.91/1

Average win odds: 7.37/1

Profit/Loss: +2.7pts

Return On Investment: +3.33%

This month we had six two point selections, none of which won, including two which finished second at SPs of 16/1. Small margins! Our “edge” (strike rate over required strike rate at the odds) was actually 11.57%, but because of the 2pt selections losing our ROI reduces to just +3.3%. We have had lots of success from our two point selections in the last few months so no reason to worry about that at all.

The million dollar question – did we beat SP – is a conclusive yes, which is the single most important stat of all. To beat it by 1.04pts on average with every selection is very pleasing.

Our win rate dropped just below our target 15% – at 13.33% – but one more win would have pushed it to a shade under 15% and two more wins would have pushed us to 16% – again those small margins!

As we’re half the year in (how quickly does time fly) – it feels like a good time to relay the above stats into year to date figures so far so here they are:

Bets: 425

Wins: 63 (14.82%)

2nds: 54 (12.71%)

3rds: 42 (6.66%)

Placed total: 159 (37.41%)

Average odds taken: 7.94/1

Average SP: 7.025/1

Average win odds: 8.04/1

Profit/Loss: +205.3pts

Return On Investment: +43.59%

I also like the way they are very fair with the prices as other services are always quoting the odds that they tipped at which sometimes can be wildly different from those that  are available  generally.

Let me make it clear that I’ve no financial interest in the service (apart from wanting more winners!) but thought it worth sharing. Just something worth bearing in mind if you do sign up- a friend of mine who used just one bookmaker for all the selections  had his account limited and BOG privileges withdrawn after going on a winning run. Stan James were the bookmaker who it appears do not like you winning…..

Onto this weeks golf and its interesting that the people who are taking the British Open seriously are getting some practice in at Scotland- personally I’m suprised that Rory isn’t playing and indeed and won’t have played seriously for three weeks.I think he is too short at 7’s for Royal St Georges  and will be taking him on- if he does win then some Unibet cash back will ease the pain!. If you are having a punt in Scotland then Betfred have quite a decent offer and also not a bad one in the states where they take on Steve Stricker.