I’m not a big one for talking about which tipster services I use for a couple of reasons. The first one is that if does look like you have a personal interest in the promotion of the service (more of that another time) and secondly the bookmakers are a bit sneaky sometimes and could limit your account if you talk openly about using services which are on their hit list for having the temerity to actually provide winners!
I’m going to break cover on the Market Examiner as I’ve found the service to be excellent, not only in terms of a strike rate and return but more importantly because of the information that you get at the end of the day about how the horses have done therefore giving you an understanding of what has happened.
Here is their summary of Mays results which as you can see is quite impressive.
Hope you’re having a good day. Before we crack on with the analysis, just to say we’ll mark up Bellechance this morning as a 6/1 shot, although hopefully most of you managed to get the 7/1 with Stan James. 6/1 was available for a long while with a few firms including Coral. Bet365 odds crashed in a most unusual way as the email was being delivered. An interesting runner.
For now let’s look back at the month of June. It was a fairly frustrating month all told, every time we seemed to be picking up a slight head of steam things were pegged back. In the first part of the month we had many second placed finishes, and ended with 14 in all from our 75 picks (nearly one in five). Still, despite the difficulties we still managed a profit, the fifth month in a row which we’ve achieved that.
So let’s take a look at the figures.
Wins: 10 (13.33%)
2nds: 14 (18.66%)
3rds: 5 (6.66%)
Placed total: 29 (38.67%)
Average odds taken: 7.95/1 (exactly the same as last month!)
Average SP: 6.91/1
Average win odds: 7.37/1
Return On Investment: +3.33%
This month we had six two point selections, none of which won, including two which finished second at SPs of 16/1. Small margins! Our “edge” (strike rate over required strike rate at the odds) was actually 11.57%, but because of the 2pt selections losing our ROI reduces to just +3.3%. We have had lots of success from our two point selections in the last few months so no reason to worry about that at all.
The million dollar question – did we beat SP – is a conclusive yes, which is the single most important stat of all. To beat it by 1.04pts on average with every selection is very pleasing.
Our win rate dropped just below our target 15% – at 13.33% – but one more win would have pushed it to a shade under 15% and two more wins would have pushed us to 16% – again those small margins!
As we’re half the year in (how quickly does time fly) – it feels like a good time to relay the above stats into year to date figures so far so here they are:
Wins: 63 (14.82%)
2nds: 54 (12.71%)
3rds: 42 (6.66%)
Placed total: 159 (37.41%)
Average odds taken: 7.94/1
Average SP: 7.025/1
Average win odds: 8.04/1
Return On Investment: +43.59%
I also like the way they are very fair with the prices as other services are always quoting the odds that they tipped at which sometimes can be wildly different from those that are available generally.