My last post was a ramble about the importance of luck and it would appear that I’m still getting my fair share of it. I had previously mentioned that the Football Investor service had had a great start to the season (54 points profit), well make that 97 now as the wins have just kept coming. I keep getting this nagging feeling that I should just bail out now- stop placing any more bets and bank the profit as I refuse to believe the season can get any better but then I thought that when I last posted!
Hugh Taylor (At the Races) also continues to deliver the goods with the highlight being a spectacular 25/1 each way winner last Saturday (It may even have been advised at 33/1 )that was sent off at 8/1. I’m amazed that this hasn’t led to the account being closed down as the book I placed the bet with is particularly “soft” and has a reputation for managing customers and not their lines but to be honest I’ll happily take account losses and closures if they are delivering those types of numbers consistently.
Its easy to blog continually about good stuff (the “win together lose on your own” syndrome) and sometimes a bit of balance /perspective is needed. I have been looking into trading of test matches (specifically taking on the draw so actually I think the phrase “trading” is probably a bit grand ?!) . Having carried plenty of research (via the excellent Cricinfo website) I built a nice little spreadsheet detailing all test match results in the last four years and more specifically looking at the venues/results and also if weather played a part in the draws.
Armed with this information I have started dipping my toes in the water where I think that the draw is too low a price and had been having a nice run until I got very lazy/complacent/stupid. I didnt check the weather forecasts in Banglahore ( 4 days completely lost to rain after an excellent start which saw South Africa bowled out for 214) and Perth (rain on the last day). The Perth game was a batfest anyway so the rain didn’t make too much difference and my stupidity here was forcing myself to get involved when I knew that the draw price was higher than that I had previously identified as value. I think this is referred to as “action betting” and is something that is to be avoided at all costs. Sometimes the best bet is no bet and I’m pleased to say that throughout the history of this blog, that is a mantra that I’ve pretty much stuck to (give or take a few instances where I have got involved with Hugh Taylor despite missing prices). They were a couple a couple of expensive mistakes and the good thing about the whole episode has been that it made me further evaluate that particular line of inquiry – a run of winners may have led to an increase in stakes /further sloppy behavior and ultimately financial penalty. I also make sure (and have been boring about it on this blog previously) that I keep records of everything I do so now every time I open the cricket trading spreadsheet I have two big red lines of numbers. Ouch.