Scalped!

I think the weekends football was probably a bit of a car crash for all concerned with a set of bizarre results that will have had the bookmakers again laughing all the way to the bank- you would certainly have caught a cold if you were an “odds on backer” with the results at Chelsea and Man City.

I didn’t get involved as per my previous post but Sunday was a different story as there were a few games that fitted the LTD criteria. I’ve seen a few comments on various blogs about Ian Erskines LTD selections catching a cold and that was certainly the case with 0-0 games and underdogs scoring first. It seems that its a recurring theme that I talk about exit strategies etc and I seemed to successfully trade my way out of all the games with one notable exception. My latest “brainwave” has been to protect myself from a goalless game by scalping the 0-0 correct score market pre match for a half/full tick.  The theory behind this being that I decided that this would provide me with an element of  insurance- This worked brilliantly in the first couple of games and I laid off some of the profit to give me some nice green on all the scores.

However I came unstuck in the Sunday night game between Internacional v Avai when I backed the draw too early before kick off and it continued to drift out before play started. You can guess what happened next- a goal in the first minute and my £200 bet had lost. I’m not sure what the stats are about early goals but I’m sure that this shouldn’t be too dangerous a strategy if you can get into the market at its absolute peak just before kick off (Of course I realise that as soon as you are in play there is an element of risk). The other problem here was that because it was a relatively obscure game the money available in the market was pretty poor so this would have effected market movement.

You have to take knock backs like this if you are to succeed but £200 in one hit was an absolute kick in the teeth and it wiped out my previous earlierositive  results and left me with a loss of £140 on the day.  Whats even more annoying is that after 12 days of trading this particular method and setting myself specific targets to achieve I’m massively off the pace. Having started with a bet bank of £1250 and looking to compound it by 3% every trading day I’ve managed to shrink it by £63!  I’m not an accountant but even I can work out that is not clever.

The good thing about writing this blog (and keeping private records) it does let you focus on where you may be going wrong and the positive I’m going to take out of the above numbers is that I’ve learnt some valuable lessons on what to  and not do in various positions. Theres no point sulking about it. Onwards and upwards (although sidewards would be nice at the moment!!).

Lastly if you are hacked off with Sky or just want a cheap way of seeing some football for the next three months then you could do worse than this offer which I have found- bet £50 at 188bet and get free ESPN and a free freeview box.

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