Hugh(e) Variance

Im not entirely sure that that post title works but lets stick with it for the time being.

Heres a question for my thousands of avid readers. If you read the following write up would you get involved?:

There’s not much that I’d get excited about today, but RAASHDY might have a bit better chance than his odds suggest in the second division of the 1m2f handicap at Chelmsford this evening (8.45) and he’s the each-way suggestion for small stakes.

It’s not hard to find the negatives to his chance, as you’d expect of one at his price, as his recent form has mirrored that of his stable, which hasn’t had a winner since April, and he’s drawn out in stall 15.

However, Raashdy’s two recent runs on synthetics have both seen his chance compromised by his draw, and whilst his apprentice riders were unable to overcome that obstacle on either occasion, Luke Morris might be able to take up a better position during the early stages of the race.

Raashdy was hammered by the handicapper for winning a weak Wolverhampton maiden on his second career start and had little chance from that opening mark, but he’s been dropped 21lb since then.

His chance here will depend to a degree on whether his rider can overcome the draw, but he looks worth chancing.


1pt each-way RAASHDY (33-1 general)

Take into account that Hugh has said previously that backing his selections at anything less than 80% of the quoted prices would mean long term failure and also that when I looked on betfair a few hours later ( having not been able to be at my pc when Hugh tweeted his alert) the price had ( as usual with his big priced selections) halved.

Its fair to say the smart move would have been to have avoided it.

1 (15) Luke Morris silk 9. RAASHDY (IRE) <
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Luke Morris 4 9-0 16/1 34 70/-

The highest matched in play price on Betfair was 70 its fair to say that someone caught a cold  and the “34” is the Betfair starting price which is interesting for two reasons.

Firstly its unusual to see something that Hugh suggests to go off anywhere near the originally quoted price (unless something has gone seriously “wrong” with it pre race) and secondly look at the difference between the industry starting price (with traditional bookmakers) and the Betfair one. 16/1 plays 33/1.

Thats absolutely massive and does beg the question why anyone contines to use  so called “traditional” bookmakers anymore.

That is if they are allowed to .

Heres the prelude to Hughs column yesterday:

    Born To Reason and Prost were two 25-1 winners for Hugh in the last week and his great run continued yesterday when 7-1 bet Chough went in.

First thing to note is the refreshing lack of over excitement here- none of the “boom ” bullshit you see elsewhere. Perhaps they are asked to tone it down by Hugh given that he can obviously go on loooong losing runs (-35 points in August) and the subsequent grief he gets from idiots on twitter.

Perhaps more relevant at the moment is that if anyone had backed horses advised at 25/1, 25/1 and yesterdays 33/1 with the same bookmaker then there is no way on gods earth that they would be allowed to put another bet on.

I fact in fairness I’m doing the bookmakers a massive disservice here as of course you would be allowed to put a bet on . You would be allowed to put on 3p but “No Sir we can’t offer you Best odds guaranteed on that bet – its a traders decison”.

In gambling awareness week its important to note that

When the Fun stops Stop.

That is so embarrassing as a statement. If I was having fun betting this week winning at those odds there is absolutely no doubt that my fun would have been stopped by a traders decision.