and in particular one of the stats that was on that post.
“Surely a much catchier lede would have been that backing all Homes in England’s top three leagues last season would have been up by:”
“How far back you want to go looking for trends is up to the individual. Personally, I think two or three seasons is good,”
Certainly thought provoking so I spent a bit of time doing exactly that and found that while those figures were indeed correct ( and why would thye not be when they have been extracted from the brilliant http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php site)
If you then go back a couple of seasons you then find that perhaps its not quite as rosy with the numbers (using Pinnacle prices) being
2013-14 -42.55 points
2014-2015 -78.66 points
2015-16 -66.62 Points
However thats not quite the end of it as its always possible that you can then play about with different numbers in order to try and find an edge- beware the perils of “backfitting” and “data mining”.!!
On a related subject do any of my many thousands of blog readers know of anywhere that I can access the starting pre season prices for relegation from the Premiership for the above seasons? I’ve tried Odds portal.com at the suggestion of a couple of people but unfortunately while they have a mass of information thats the one thing they don’t seem to have!
If anyone has any ideas where I could find it I would be really happy and hopefully will be able to process this data more and share the findings.
Thanks in advance!