Archive by Author

Hugh(e) Variance

Im not entirely sure that that post title works but lets stick with it for the time being. Heres a question for my thousands of avid readers. If you read the following write up would you get involved?: There’s not much that I’d get excited about today, but RAASHDY might have a bit better chance than his odds suggest in the second division of the 1m2f handicap at Chelmsford this evening (8.45) and he’s the each-way suggestion for small stakes. It’s not hard to find the negatives to his chance, as you’d expect of one at his price, as his recent form has mirrored that of his stable, which hasn’t had a […]

Hidden Gold

I saw written recently somewhere ( could I be more vague?)  that the power of the internet makes us all lazy. I think thats actually quite true as we are becoming more and more accustomed to finding out all the information we require ( or think we do) by just pressing a couple of buttons on our PC’s. Anything that requires a bit more effort and people just don’t want to know. I always laugh when I see that tv advert with Christino Ronaldo on it with one of those electronic abs machines- seriously??? I wonder how many “larger” people have bought that thinking all they have to do is […]

A little OTT?

I’ve mentioned in the last couple of blog posts about the importance of following services that are totally transparent when it comes to the publication of results and I also mentioned that even if they do then the recording of this can be somewhat flawed and slightly OTT. A case in point here is the excellent Hugh Taylor service which is published daily on the At The Races website. Let me make it clear at this point that there is absolutely no criticism implied of the service here . Its free and has provided me with 4 years  worth of winners so it would be rather fickle of me to […]

Backing the homes

Quick comment to make on always excellent Green All Over blog    and in particular one of the stats that was on that post. “Surely a much catchier lede would have been that backing all Homes in England’s top three leagues last season would have been up by:” “How far back you want to go looking for trends is up to the individual. Personally, I think two or three seasons is good,” Certainly thought provoking so I spent a bit of time doing exactly  that and found that while those figures were indeed correct ( and why would thye not be when they have been extracted from the brilliant http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php  site) If you […]

True Odds pt 2

Always nice when someone takes the time to comment on a blog piece so thanks to “Billy Bunter” for the following: I have always wondered at the accuracy of the RFO True Odds. I do not trust the journalists to use the RFO True Odds prices to select the right bets so was never convinced by the column tips. I would be interested if anyone had used the listed True Prices to place their own bets based on certain criteria like a minimum difference of 3% or something similar. Maybe they have success using different minimum differences or only betting in certain leagues etc. Maybe they constantly over or underestimate […]

True odds True Results

With the football season fast approaching (did it ever end?) I thought it might be interesting to post up some details on the results of the Racing and Football Outlooks True Odds service. For those unfamiliar- they work out the “true odds” (strangely enough given the title) of various football matches with the idea being that if you can then get better odds then that then this is the path to success. As (hopefully) everyone involved in betting knows then this beating of the “true odds” is the only way anyone is really going to succeed in the betting game. There are two issues here  1) The ability to get […]

Time flies

Wow. Time flies when you’ve got screaming kids! Its been over 6 months since the last blog piece and while bloggers normally stop posting because they either have nothing interesting left to say (that never ever stopped me) or its no fun posting about losing, the simple fact is that with three kids under three, time is so limited that every waking moment seems to be taken up. Betting wise its been actually ok. With the emphasis very much on the “ok” though. Golf wise, Jeremy Chapman in the RFO is level for the year although he would have been nicely ahead as he had tipped Justin Rose at the […]

Its Over

And I know it’s over Still I cling I don’t know where else I can go It’s over, it’s over, it’s over I know it’s over And it never really began But in my heart it was so real And you even spoke to me and said: “If you’re so funny Then why are you on your own tonight? And if you’re so clever Then why are you on your own tonight? If you’re so very entertaining Then why are you on your own tonight? If you’re so very good looking Why do you sleep alone tonight? I love the Smiths and any excuse to talk about them. I always […]

Winning together losing on your own….

… is an often repeated manta in the betting industry and one that Ive mentioned a few times in the blog., after all no one ever walked into work and said ” put one hundred pounds on a horse on Saturday and it fell at the first”. Betfair Pro trader is a recent addition to my blog roll and this post sums it up quite nicely. http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2016/06/if-you-must-publish-profit-loss-blog.html . I’d like to think that I’m quite open about how my  escapades into the different markets are faring and recently I’ve noticed that I’ve had a number of questions on the different sports I get involved in. Rather than do one long incredibly boring […]

A lot sappened

That’s (and another!) one straight away for the spelling police to get stuck into. Realised this morning that it was weeks since I had been able to motivate myself to get something onto the blog. I mean its not like there has been a lot going on in the world of sport and betting is it? First off there was Cheltenham and the furore caused by TGP offering silly deals to entice people and then completely shitting themselves when they realised that all the favourites had won and they owed a lot of money. Luckily common sense prevailed and they did a huge u turn and paid out but, you have […]