A little OTT?

I’ve mentioned in the last couple of blog posts about the importance of following services that are totally transparent when it comes to the publication of results and I also mentioned that even if they do then the recording of this can be somewhat flawed and slightly OTT.

A case in point here is the excellent Hugh Taylor service which is published daily on the At The Races website. Let me make it clear at this point that there is absolutely no criticism implied of the service here . Its free and has provided me with 4 years  worth of winners so it would be rather fickle of me to do so!

You can find a detailed analysis of all of his results here  http://www.attheraces.com/news/hugh-taylor—2017

The problem is that all of those prices you see there are the prices that Hugh quotes in his column. That’s all well and good if you can actually get those prices with the various bookmakers but you have to be very very quick. I’ve got some free -to- download software that alerts me to changes in the website and I can usually place bets within ten seconds of the page being updated on the ATR website.

Im not joking when I say that sometimes the bookies will have cut their prices in that time! In fairness to Hugh he goes out of his way to try and help people get these prices by tweeting when they are about to be posted but you only have to answer the door to the postman and you can come back to an advised horse at 9/1 that is now only availible at 6/1.

You can therefore see how talking about a “12/1 winner yesterday”  is a touch misleading as the vast majority of punters wont have got anywhere near that price ( It actually went off at 9/4 if my memory serves me correctly). More importantly I’ve seen Hugh quoted as saying that if you back his selections at less than 80% of the advised prices then long term you wont make any profit. I wonder how many people  don’t know this and stroll in from work, see he has two selections running at Windsor that night and happily put their cash on it. I guess they would be happy as they will have backed a winner but in the long term they are going to lose out.

What is also very interesting is the effect that Hughs selections have on the Betfair market. Hugh has said before that he doesn’t back his own selections which we have to believe but there is no doubt in my mind that somewhere along the “chain” (Hugh sending his types to the ATR team team to them appearing on line) someone is backing them on Betfair.

A licence to print money really as whoever does it knows that the price will crash on the exchanges as the arbers race to lock in some free profit but its something anyone who is new to following Hughs service  should understand.

My own following of Hugh has taken a bit of a battering recently- due to home commitments I’m unable to be at my PC every single second between 9 and 10  am ( when the vast majority of selections are posted), this means that on at least 2 mornings a week I will miss the advised prices and I’m then faced with a difficult decision ( get a grip man in the big scale of it its not that bad!)  – do i ignore the selection completely or do I (as I’m currently doing) try and get the best price available ( normally on Betfair) at half the stakes? I’m currently doing the latter and seem to be having a run where the winners are all on days that I’ve got half stakes on at lesser odds. This makes a massive difference to the monthly P and L  and it physiologically quite tough to take .  🙁

Hugh is also on a bit of a bad run and as usual is getting the same farcical comments left on his twitter feed- these people should never be allowed to bet.

On a different note – 20 years ago I had a 30th birthday party . Pretty drunken affair in which the general consensus was everyone had a good time. Woke up the next morning to headlines of Dodi and Di dead. No one mentions  my party now without bringing that up. Think everyone there must have gone on to work for the Daily Mail.

I also didn’t think that 20 years down the line the mainstream press would still be going on about it and it reminded me of this “joke” ..

Royalists look away now….

What do you get if  you cross Prince Philip and the Queen?

Killed in a tunnell.