Archive | October, 2010

Crisps 3/1-. The moneys in the bag.

As part of the occasional attempts to put something different on the blog I came across a great article in The Times today – because they now charge for online access and I’m too tight to pay I will have to give you the  gist of what it was about. It was written by David Spiegalhalter who is professor of the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge-firstly what a job title; he must have a foot long business card. The article talks about a rain forecasting competition run by Walkers the crisp people. Basically you enter a code found inside the packet onto a website that allows you […]

Carling Cup and a big eastern derby

Hmmm- The general view seems to be to avoid getting involved in this competition as the teams that are put out sometimes have a big factor in what can happen (thinking about it that sounds a bit obvious but you know what I mean!) . The flipside of this is that I suppose there is some real value to be had if you can get first to the team news and then back at some of the main stream bookies before they cut their odds. I’m sure there is some merit in it but you would have to be super quick and this sort of thing gets you flagged up […]

Swedish Dog Lover?

No its not some obscure pornographic reference (perhaps no one even thought that and its just me?). FT Odense BK 1-2 (0-1) SønderjyskE SWE D1 FT IFK Göteborg 1-2 (1-0) Trelleborgs FF SWE D1 FT Örebro SK 1-1 (0-1) Brommapojkarna Got involved in some trading on the above games after getting an excellent email from Alan M (cheers, you know who you are!) helping me out with my various exit points . I combined this with some insurance on correct scores and despite the utterly bizarre results seen above managed to only lose  £16.70 . I realise that statement makes me sound a bit of a fruitcake but again valuable […]

If you fall off……

….Get straight back on. Think it applies to riding a horse or something but after the bad day at the office yesterday decided that was what I had to do with football picks. I received a total of eight selections and decided to use 6 of these with very conservative targets in terms of amount staked (maximum risk 15% of my current betting bank) and ROI target (25% of the amount staked) . I weighted the targets differently  between the draw and two wins to favour the wins. By setting fairly conservative targets on the individual markets I’m hoping that their is more chance of the “back bet” being taken […]

New ideas tested…. and binned!!!

Saturday evening update :  A terrible day and one that was a real wake up call with valuable lessons learnt. After the mistake of trying to combine horses and football a couple of weeks ago today was all about football. The trouble was I made the mistake of combining different approaches and bookmakers on the same games . Big mistake! I received the Matt Abraham picks early on and decided to trade those as usual however one of those (the Spurs Everton game) was also  the TOTD from the trading football guys  so it meant that my ability to make very quick snapshot judgements on where I stood was severely […]

Genius or lucky fool?

I’m not sure – I’m know for a fact that I’m not a  genius and never will be. On Friday night I traded the Augsberg v Union Berlin game on Green eyed traders site (listed in blog to the right and always a good read). It was a 5 o’clock kick off  and the odds looked about right for applying the fts strategy so I placed my lay bet on the draw and my back bet also so that in the event of an early goal to the fav (Augsburg) my work would be done .  As has happened a few times recently the dog scored first and then I […]

Four day horse race.

What I hear you say? Has the betting blogger lost the plot ? Nope its how someone once described trading on golf tournaments. The point being that there is plenty of movement in the odds but as it takes place over an extended time frame you have  the opportunity to take  positions and trade in and out of them. The biggest danger is obviously someone someone not making the cut and one bad hole can send the odds soaring however its something I’ve always “dabbled in” but am now going to formalise into my own trial to see if it can pay off. I’ve set up two separate trading banks […]

Something a bit different……

I’ve not done any activity today (Wednesday) as been busy today up a few other matters- I’m aware that as well as being informative blogs should be fun and was wondering if this one had become a  bit too formal over the last days. To try and counter the balance here is the first post from someone on another planet called “the rake”. Do you remember the first time? It was a sure thing and the best bet of the World Cup 2010.  Over four  bookings in the Final at 11/10.  My fist punched the air as English referee Howard Webb brandished a fifth yellow card at ‘ thug of […]

Decisions Decisions…..

I’ve just reread yesterdays blog (accepting the red) and it seems a little “brainless” on reflection. I wasn’t advocating just sitting there and hoping that all games go my way but just pointing out that sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling on games and take an overall view on your nights trading. Tonight was a case in point as I followed Matt Abrahams picks on the Burnley Arsenal and Shakatar games . The one that caused me issues was the Roma game as Basel scored first and the draw (as it does when the “dog” scores first) didn’t move significantly as the market expects the favourite […]

Accepting the red?

The much used lay the draw strategy (which is sold  under a number of different names) always recommends that you trade out around the 70 minute mark of a game if it is goalless or the underdog is winning (as the market expects at least an equaliser ). This makes absolute sense in theory as it protects your bank as it avoids a string of nice little wins being wiped out by one result going against you.  When you are trading football it is the hardest decision in the world to push that button and “accept that red”. I’m in complete agreement to this theory when I’m trading the various […]